Forecast energy price cap rise in Britain could push UK fuel bills up 4% this winter

Expected quarterly rise highest in three years and likely to wipe out Burnham’s VAT cut on electricity bills

Household energy bills across Great Britain are expected to climb to a three-year high this winter as the impact of the Middle East war wipes out Andy Burnham’s tax cut on electricity bills.

The government’s cap on energy prices is on track to rise by 4% from this October to the equivalent of £1,729 a year through the last three months of 2026, which could hit struggling households especially hard this winter, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight.