Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid

Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect

• Our reporters answer your questions about the US economy and the midterm elections

It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections.

In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.